BRATISLAVA, August 14, (WEBNOVINY) — As expected, year-on-year growth of the Slovak economy slowed over the second quarter of 2012. The Statistics Office informed on Tuesday that gross domestic product grew 2.7 percent y/y in real terms over the second quarter while in the first quarter the local economy surged 3 percent. Net of seasonal influences, gross domestic product jumped 2.9 percent. The economy maintains a solid q/q growth that that achieved 0.7 percent over the second quarter, which is the same figure as in the previous quarter.
At current prices, gross domestic product was EUR 17.825 billion, representing an increase of 3.7 percent from a year ago. The Statistics Office will publish revised GDP figures for the second quarter of this year on September 6, 2012.
According to a regular survey of the central bank, bank analysts had expected that the real y/y economic growth will slow to 2.5 percent. They expect GDP in 2012 to grow 2.1 percent, which would mean further slowdown of the y/y dynamics in further quarters.
Though the statistics authority so far published only basic data on GDP development based on monthly statistics, it is apparent that cars are the driving force behind the growth of the Slovak economy. “On the other hand, in most other export-oriented industrial sectors output has already dropped. This mirrors general weakening of foreign demand and mainly slowing of the German economy,” said ING analyst Eduard Hagara. An impulse on the side of domestic demand cannot be expected either as with unemployment still high, retails sales dropped again over the second quarter. In the following quarters analysts thus forecast a continued slowdown of growth of the Slovak economy. Analyst Lubomir Korsnak of UniCredit Bank attributes it to weaker demand from EU countries and the end of the launch phase of new production in the automotive industry and continued weak local demand. “According to our estimates the Slovak economy should thus grow only two percent on average in the second half of this year. It should grow by 2.4 percent for the whole 2012,” says Korsnak.
SITA