BRATISLAVA, September 25, (WEBNOVINY) — Following the central bank and the Finance Ministry, local banking houses have revised their prognoses of next year’s economic growth, too. According to a regular survey of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) among bank analysts, the banks revised down their estimate of economic growth for next year by 0.2 percentage points from August to 2.2 percent. Analysts left the prognosis of this year’s GDP growth unchanged, at 2.2 percent. In the third quarter of this year Slovakia’s economy should slow to 1.9 percent compared with the 2.8-percent in the second quarter.
Regarding the development of prices, commercial banks expect inflation to accelerate this year and slow in 2013. They revised up their September prognosis of year-end harmonized inflation for this year by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 percent. In December of next year prices should grow 2.9 percent while in August the banks prognosticated the annual inflation moderately higher at 3 percent.
While in the previous months, prognoses of banks were more conservative than expectations of the central bank and the Finance Ministry, after these institutions revised their expectations last time bank analysts show more optimism. Banks expect a worse development mainly this year. Earlier in September the central bank updated its prognosis of this year’s growth from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent while the Finance Ministry stayed with the original 2.5 percent. The central bank expects the Slovak economy to grow 2 percent next year while the Finance Ministry prognosticates 2.1 percent.
Both institutions agree in the point that this year’s growth will still significantly benefit from new projects launched in the automotive sector. However, under the influence of the base effect this influence will fade away and the Slovak economy due to diminishing foreign demand and still weak domestic demand will slow its dynamics.
SITA
