BRATISLAVA, December 7, (WEBNOVINY) — The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) has revised moderately downward its prognosis of this year’s economic growth of Slovakia by 0.1 percentage point to 4.2 percent. This stems from the latest mid-term prediction of the central bank, issued on Tuesday. For 2011, the NBS has preserved its estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth at three percent. For 2012, the central bank has revised GDP growth estimate downward by 0.1 points to 4 percent.
The reason behind the revision is higher volume of imports in the third quarter, the bank explained. NBS further stated that in the following years, economic growth will be influenced by consolidation measures of the government, in particular in 2011.
The central bank has also moderately increased its prognosis of consumer price growth measured by the EU methodology next year from its September prognosis of 3.8 percent to 3.9 percent. In 2012, the growth rate of prices should decelerate to 2.6 percent. This year, harmonized inflation should reach 0.7 percent from the original estimate of 0.9 percent.
Behind the lower expected growth of consumer prices this year is a slower than expected growth of food, energy and service prices. The dynamics of price growth in 2011 will be stimulated by growing prices of food, energies, and increase in excise tax tariffs, in the Value-Added Tax and introduction of new charges.
Following this year’s drop of 1.5 percent, employment should moderately rise already next year. In 2011, the growth is projected at 0.1 percent and at 0.5 percent in 2012. The central bank has not revised these prognoses. The bank comments that positive signs of economic recovery will reflect in the development of the labor market very slowly and in a restricted form.
The central bank remains the most positive relevant institution regarding economic growth expectations this year. International institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the OECD expect Slovak economy to achieve 4.1 percent growth this year. Slovakia’s Finance Ministry prognosticates a GDP growth of 4 percent. In 2011, the institutions estimate growth from 3 to 4.3 percent, and from 3.9 to 4.5 percent in 2012.
SITA
