BRATISLAVA, February 7, (WEBNOVINY) — Slovakia will in all probability avoid economic recession this year. Analysts addressed by the SITA news agency share this opinion with the Finance Ministry that predicted this development in its preliminary prognosis released on Monday. “I expect that the economy can avoid recession. Latest figures from Germany as well as partial reports from us {Slovakia] have improved these outlooks,” stated analyst with CSOB Marek Gabris.
In any case, no substantial growth can be expected and economic growth about 1 percent will be considered success. “I would still say that it will be a so-called positive zero, i.e. a mild growth in the zone from 0 to 1 percent, more likely in the lower part of the zone, in my opinion,” added Gabris. VUB Banka analysts are slightly more optimistic. “We foresee the real GDP growth at 1 percent in 2012 in yearly terms,” asserts Andrej Arady of VUB Banka. Commercial banks in Slovakia currently expect economic growth of 0.8 percent next year.
Vladimir Vano of Volksbank Slovensko thinks that the country still benefits from the good timing of euro adoption which boosts competitiveness of Slovak companies compared with those from Hungary and Poland. Continuing trend of geographic optimization of production capacities of supranational companies is also beneficial. “The Sword of Damocles of lingering uncertainty which can potentially deepen under a repeated escalation of turbulences on the European bond market still hangs over outlooks,“ concludes Vano.
The Finance Ministry has downgraded this year’s economic growth estimate from the originally projected 1.7 percent to 1.1 percent in its preliminary prognosis which is yet to be assessed by analysts from various state and private institutions. The Finance Ministry has not yet calculated the shortfall in public finances that the predicted deceleration in the economic growth could cause. The impact however should be mild. No additional measures above the state budget framework are thus considered for this year, says the prognosis. The 2012 state budget counts on the general government deficit at 4.6 percent of GDP.
SITA