BRATISLAVA, January 25, (WEBNOVINY) — The Slovak economy will grow very slightly, if at all, this year. This stems from the current January round of survey of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) among bank analysts. According to their average estimate, economic growth this year will reach 1.1 percent. Estimates of individual banks range from zero to 1.7 percent. Compared to December, the average estimated growth this year fell by 0.1 percentage points.
Compared to 2012, this would mean a slowdown of economic growth in Slovakia by more than half. For 2012, bank analysts still expect economic growth to reach 2.4 percent. Bankers expect harmonized inflation at the end of this year at 2.4 percent, similarly as inflation measured by national methodology.
Forecasts of economic growth for this year by banks are more pessimistic than current estimates of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance. In December, the National Bank of Slovakia lowered its forecast of economic growth for 2013 fell, but not as much as commercial banks. Currently it expects the economy to grow by 1.6 percent and the Finance Ministry foresees growth of 2.1 percent. It will update its forecast in February.
Similarly as the NBS, the Finance Ministry wrote in its update of macroeconomic forecasts last September that last year’s growth has benefited from new projects that were underway in the automotive industry. This effect, however, will disappear this year and the Slovak economy will be influenced by weakening external demand and the still weak domestic demand will slow down its momentum.
SITA